Closed beta · Invite only
The prediction market for the people building consumer brands.
Sharper than Twitter.
More focused than Polymarket.
YES / NO trading on consumer-brand outcomes - launches, M&A, retail wins, regulatory calls. Built for operators, calibrated by Brier. Play money. Real signal.
Operators in the room
104
Active markets
613
Trades placed
11,845
Resolved
63
Operators trading their own beat.
Every position is public. Every track record is real. A buyer at a category-leading retailer can take NO on a brand showing up in their store next quarter without putting their job on the line.
Top calibrated
@reesefisher
+119 SP
Realized P/L
@briarkim
+73 SP
@reesebennett
+63 SP
@sashashah
+63 SP
@wrencarrillo
+48 SP
@wrenortiz
+40 SP
Live snapshot from /leaderboard· calibration scores at /accuracy.
Question. Price. Deadline. Settle.
Will Magic Spoon hit 10,000 Walmart doors by Q1 2026?
Resolves YESif Magic Spoon achieves distribution in 10,000+ U.S. Walmart doors (Supercenter, Neighborhood Market, Sam's Club) on any single day between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. Source: Walmart store-locator, SPINS / Circana scanner data, or Magic Spoon press release.
1The question. Plain English. One yes-or-no answer. Hard deadline.
2The price.72% YES means the crowd puts odds at 72%. Buying YES at 22% when you think it's 50% is the trade.
3The criteria. Printed verbatim, read literally at resolution. Ambiguity voids and refunds.
4The source.Every market names where we'll read the outcome. SEC, FDA, retailer press, scanner data.
0.1287
Top-decile insider Brier
We measure who's right. Not who's loud.
Lower is better. Zero is perfect. Always-50/50 is 0.25. Platform-wide average sits at 0.2473; the calibrated insiders sit well below.
Volume isn't skill. Anyone can fire 10,000 SP at a coin flip. What's hard is buying YES at 22% on a market that resolves YES at 100% - calling something the crowd missed. Every trade you make has a Brier score. Every trader's score is public, time-stamped, falsifiable. That's the moat.
Top-decile insider
0.13
Predicted vs realized · sample-weighted
Median trader
0.25
Coin flip
0.25
Build a real reputation. On the record.
Trade your beat without putting your job on the line.
Handles are pseudonymous so you can call a retailer, a competitor, or your own employer honestly. Identity stays private to admins for sybil control.
Play currency, real consequences for your record.
Sugar Points are play money. No deposits, no withdrawals, no CFTC.Your track record is what matters - and it's portable.
A small room of operators who actually know the category.
Every member is vetted. Every market resolves from a public source. Today: 104 operators in the room, all calibrated against the record.
What you get
What we ask
Get in the room.
We open a small batch of invites every week. Drop your email above - or, if you already have a referral code from a current trader, you'll skip the queue.
Not ready? Read how Hero Market works or see the calibration record.